Evaluation of the Behavior of COVID-19 Pandemic, and Evolution Forecasting

Abstract

Aim: to propose indicators and procedures that assist in the evaluation, and prediction of the behavior of COVID-19 pandemic, using basic mathematical knowledge.

Methods and techniques: search of information about the behavior of the pandemic in different scenarios, and the application of mathematical and statistical methods.

Main results: indicators and procedures that contribute to the evaluation of the situation caused by COVID-19, and forecasting possible rises of infected cases and deaths, to help in decision-making.

Conclusions: the indicators and procedures suggested contribute to the evaluation of the  behavior  of  COVID-19  pandemic,  and  to  short  and  mid-term  forecasting  of  its behavior, for decision-making by sanitary and government authorities.